There is no question there were major irregularities in the 2022 election in Arizona, and many of them are being revealed in the ongoing trial. But it’s always an enormously uphill battle to prove there was intentional fraud that mattered in terms of the outcome.
I haven’t watched any of the trial myself, and from the accounts I’ve read I’m a bit confused as to what actually must be proved in this case in order to win, and what the court would be willing to apply as a remedy if that burden were met. Maybe it’s because it’s not been made clear?
At any rate, here are some links to articles on the proceedings: this, this, and this.
There certainly have been witnesses alleging to the strange goings-on, which were egregious. Some of them have said that these things could not have occurred unintentionally and must instead have been intentional, but I don’t know whether the judge will buy it. Then of course there’s the aforementioned question of how far the plaintiff (Lake) has to go to prove she would have won the election otherwise.
My gut feeling is that despite the strong evidence of chicanery and even more powerful evidence of egregious negligence in the way this election was run – almost certainly contributing to and perhaps determining Lake’s loss – the court will be reluctant to do anything about it except some sort of mild admonition to Maricopa County to clean up its act.
In general, courts do not want to decide elections and there is an enormous presumption in favor of letting things stand no matter what. As I’ve said before, the only way to deal with these things is to prevent them from happening.
Of course, if Lake wins her case and a new election is called, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
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